The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia 2021

Afghanistan

Timeline

1933 Zahir Shah becomes king. Tensions between conservative and modernizing forces persist.

July 1973 Prime minister overthrows monarchy in a coup. A socialist-oriented republican government is formed.

April 1978 Communist-aligned leaders take power in a coup. Violent infighting follows.

1979 Mujahideen form amid rural and conservative opposition to modernization reforms. Soviet Union intervenes in support of communist government.

May 1989 Soviet Union withdraws. More than one million Soviet and Afghan troops killed during decade-long occupation.

April 1992 Communist government of President Mohammad Najibullah collapses. Peshawar Accord creates mujahideen-led government under President Burhanuddin Rabbani.

1996 Taliban seize Kabul. Former mujahideen form Northern Alliance.

2001 United States drives Taliban out of power. U.S. and other coalition forces are to remain for many years.

2004 New constitution promulgated. Hamid Karzai is elected, staying in power until 2014.

June 2014 Presidential election. National Unity Government formed by President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. Violence persists across much of the country.

2015 Daesh (ISIS) announces presence in Khorasan province. The Taliban continue to regain influence over time despite extended international military presence.

October 2018 Peace dialogue between the United States and the Taliban begins. Levels of violence increase.

2018–2019 Elections, inauguration of new parliament. Presidential election results are disputed, leading to a protracted political crisis.

October 2019 UN figures show the highest number of civilian casualties recorded in a single quarter (2,563 fatalities) for over a decade.

February 24, 2020 First case of Covid-19 reported in Afghanistan. By August, an official survey finds that a third of the country’s population has contracted Covid-19.

February 29, 2020 The United States and its allies sign agreement with Taliban to end hostilities.

May 17, 2020 After external mediation efforts, power-sharing agreement reached between presidential candidate Ghani and his main rival Abdullah.

November 2020 Bombings, attacks, and assassinations continue at high levels in Kabul and across the country.

December 2, 2020 The government and the Taliban agree on procedures for peace negotiations, a major initial step.

April 2021 U.S. President Biden announces rapid withdrawal of remaining U.S. troops in Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. Other NATO and allied troops also plan to depart.

May 2021 After earlier peace talks in Moscow make limited progress, proposed talks in Istanbul are postponed as the Taliban offer a low-level delegation.

May 2021 Afghanistan experiences a third wave of Covid-19.

May 10, 2021 Bombing outside Kabul school kills at least 90, mostly girls.

August 2021 After most U.S. and allied troops depart, the Taliban make rapid territorial gains and the government falls.

Overview

Afghanistan is the only country in Asia affected by intense and extensive violent conflict. Security has not improved in the last few years, as the Taliban continue to challenge the government and instability persists. Other armed groups and factions, including Daesh (also known as Islamic State Khorasan Province, or as ISIS), also maintain an active presence. The number of recorded battle incidents in 2019 surged by over 50 percent from the previous year before declining in 2020.

Political tensions associated with the contested 2019 presidential election and ethnic politicization have deeper roots in the long-term failure of both Afghan and international actors to establish an effective national political settlement. These tensions have continued to undermine government stability. Parliamentary elections finally occurred in October 2018 after three years of postponement. The 2019 presidential election saw widespread reports of fraud and irregularity and led to a political impasse that eroded confidence in the democratic process. A power-sharing agreement between the two main political candidates was eventually reached in 2020.

In 2020, the peace process moved ahead as U.S.-Taliban dialogue led to an agreement in early 2020 and U.S. troop withdrawals continued. After numerous upsets and delays, a framework for future discussions between the government and the Taliban was accepted in December 2020. Despite the ongoing violence, hopes for peace persist; over half (54.1 percent) of Afghans interviewed in late 2020 felt that peace was achievable within the next two years. In the same survey, an overwhelming majority (84.7 percent) said that it is very important for women’s rights to be protected as part of a peace agreement. U.S. withdrawal plans accelerated as the Biden administration set a target for all troops to depart by September 2021. Afghan and international actors voiced concerns over the likely impact of the withdrawal on the political process, human rights, and security. These concerns increased as the Taliban advanced across the country in July and August 2021.