The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia 2021

Myanmar

Timeline

1948 Soon after the country’s independence, civil war erupts between the military and the Communist Party of Burma, resulting in 17,600 deaths over the next four decades. Nonstate ethnic armies also resist central authority from the outset.

March 1962 General Ne Win seizes power in a coup, leading to an isolated, one-party military dictatorship.

1982 Citizenship Law denies citizenship to Muslim Rohingyas, many of whom have lived in Rakhine State for generations.

1988 The 8/8/88 uprising. The National League for Democracy (NLD) and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, emerge from vast prodemocracy protests. Security forces are reported to have killed 3,000, and Suu Kyi is placed under house arrest.

1989 The Communist Party of Burma breaks up following a mutiny. Key ethnic armed groups emerge from the splintered party.

May 1990 Suu Kyi’s NLD wins parliamentary elections, but results are rejected by the military and several NLD leaders are arrested.

August 2007 Former students and Buddhist monks lead a series of protests dubbed the Saffron Revolution. The ensuing military crackdown kills 200.

2008 The military drafts a new constitution, guaranteeing itself 25 percent of seats in parliament and control over key ministries within a partially democratic system.

November 2010 The military-backed USDP party wins a predetermined victory in elections boycotted by the NLD. Suu Kyi released from house arrest.

2011 New president Thein Sein launches reforms, releasing political prisoners, lifting restrictions on the media, and renewing peace efforts with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).

June 2011 Fighting erupts in Kachin State as a 17-year ceasefire collapses.

April 2012 Suu Kyi’s NLD contests and wins a solid victory in parliamentary by-elections.

June 2012 Riots in Rakhine State lead to at least 192 fatalities, mostly Rohingya. Almost 120,000 are displaced, mainly into internment camps. Anti-Muslim riots and violence spread to other parts of the country the following year.

October 15, 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement signed between eight EAOs and the government. While this is a significant event, several of the largest EAOs do not participate, and armed conflict continues in some areas.

November 2015 NLD wins historic landslide in general elections. Htin Kyaw will be Myanmar’s president but, in practice, Suu Kyi will run the government.

2016–2017 Massive government retaliation against attacks by a Rohingya EAO on security posts triggers a humanitarian crisis and reports of major human rights abuses. By the end 2017, half a million people have fled to Bangladesh.

January 2019 Emergence of the Arakan Army in Rakhine state.

January 23, 2020 International Court of Justice issues an order for provisional measures to protect the rights of the Rohingya in Myanmar.

November 8, 2020 NLD extends its majority in general election, capturing 397 parliamentary seats out of 476. Voting on election day is cancelled in much of Rakhine State and other conflict-affected areas.

February 1, 2021 Military takeover. Elected civilian leaders are jailed, widespread nationwide protests are met with lethal response, and conflict with EAOs escalates.

April 2021 A National Unity Government is formed to oppose the military junta. ASEAN promotes negotiations, Western nations impose sanctions, protests continue. By the end of April, around 800 people, mostly protesters, have been killed.

Overview

Following a second landslide victory by the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the general election of November 2020, Myanmar’s military alleged widespread voter fraud without producing convincing evidence. On February 1, 2021, the day the newly elected parliament was to convene, Myanmar awoke to news that the military had retaken control of all government and administrative institutions and detained NLD leadership and parliamentarians.

Widespread protests and civil disobedience soon followed, despite the imposition of a strict curfew. Security forces began to crack down on demonstrations, using increasingly violent tactics. General strikes pushed the national economy to the brink of collapse, generating severe risks of food insecurity and mass poverty across a population already affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Internet access was severely restricted across the entire country, disproportionately affecting rural and poorer populations.

Aung San Suu Kyi had remained head of the ruling NLD since 2015, when the party won the first free elections in many decades. National political institutions were broadly stable over this period, and the country progressed on many fronts after decades of absolute military control. Yet key reforms to strengthen the foundations of democratic governance, including constitutional amendments, did not make headway, and the military easily reestablished its control in February 2021, either ending or pausing Myanmar’s decade-long experiment with democracy.

During that decade, the main formal peace process achieved little beyond the landmark 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. Armed conflict continued, mainly in the areas with armed groups who did not sign the agreement, including Kachin State and northern Shan State near the Chinese border. In the west, Rakhine State also experienced upheaval after the Arakan Army emerged as a prominent and expanding armed group confronting the central government. A huge spike in battle deaths occurred in 2019 and continued in 2020, involving civilian casualties and leading to displacement across large areas of the state. In Kachin State alone, more than 97,000 remained displaced. Responses to the political turmoil of February 2021 differed among Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), with a dramatic increase in clashes in Kachin and Kayin States reflecting both preexisting conflict trends and new protests among ethnic minorities.

Meanwhile, over 700,000 recent Rohingya refugees remain in Bangladesh. International pressure has grown to seek accountability for those who committed human rights violations in Rakhine during 2016 and 2017. Religious and ethnic divides worsened across the country as the government had limited success in curbing the spread of narratives targeting Muslims and other ethnic and religious minorities. Radical Buddhist groups used social media to propagate fear and hatred. The Myanmar military has lent support to radical groups and remains unaccountable for crimes against ethnic minorities in Rakhine and other areas.