The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia 2021

The Philippines

Timeline

July 4, 1946 The Philippines gains independence.

1969 Communist Party of the Philippines is founded, and its New People’s Army begins a guerilla war. Over the next five decades, 43,000 will die.

September 23, 1972 President Ferdinand Marcos declares martial law.

October 21,1972 Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) is founded by Nur Misuari. In the decades-long insurgency that ensues on Mindanao 153,000 will die.

December 23, 1976 The Tripoli Agreement: The MNLF and the government agree to Moro autonomy, but the deal collapses.

1981 Former MNLF fighters split to form the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

1986 Marcos loses a snap election to Corazon Aquino, millions join the People Power protests to force his resignation, and democracy is restored.

1987 New constitution calls for an Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, which is created in 1989.

September 2, 1996 Final Peace Agreement with the MNLF. Its leader, Misuari, is elected governor of the new autonomous region.

March 21, 2000 President Estrada declares “all-out war” against the MILF. More than 750,000 civilians are displaced, and over 1,000 die.

January 17–20, 2001 People Power II: President Estrada is overthrown by street protests in Manila, backed by security forces. Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo becomes president.

June 19, 2006 President Arroyo declares “all-out war” against the Communist Party of the Philippines, leading to 900 extrajudicial killings and 180 disappearances of leftist activists.

2008 Breakthrough deal with the MILF declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Over 400 people are killed and more than 750,000 displaced in renewed fighting.

November 23, 2009 The Maguindanao Massacre: Ruling family in Maguindanao ambushes political rival, killing 58 in deadliest-ever incident of electoral violence.

October 15, 2012 Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro, between the government and the MILF, is signed. It outlines a path to a new autonomous region on Mindanao.

March 27, 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, between the government and the MILF, is signed.

2014 Several radical armed groups on Mindanao pledge allegiance to ISIS.

January 25, 2015 Deaths of 44 special action police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao, puts the Bangsamoro peace process on hold.

July 1, 2016 President Duterte launches a war on drugs. Police kill 3,811 alleged drug dealers in the first year; thousands more are killed by unknown assailants.

May 23, 2017 ISIS-aligned armed groups take over Marawi City. More than 1,200 are killed, including militant leaders Isnilon Hapilon and the Maute brothers, in the ensuing battle with government forces.

July 26, 2018 The Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) is signed into law by President Duterte.

January 21, 2019 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) is formed after voters ratify the Bangsamoro Organic Law.

January 27, 2019 Jolo Cathedral bombings in Sulu.

July 3, 2020 President Duterte signs the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2020. Critics argue that the definition of terrorism is too vague.

December 21, 2020 Footage of an off-duty police officer killing a mother and son after a minor dispute sparks public outrage over perceived police impunity and violence.

December 25, 2020 The Anti-Terrorism Council formally labels the Communist Party of the Philippines and the New People’s Army as terrorist groups.

Overview

In early 2019, a new step was taken towards resolving the long-term subnational conflict in the southern Philippines. Following negotiations between the national government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the landmark Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) was endorsed in a two-stage plebiscite. This inaugurated the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. This governance structure endows the region with a degree of autonomy in religion and cultural rights, some fiscal control, and greater control of its natural resources. While the law was intended to install the Bangsamoro Transitional Authority until May 2022, and then to make way for the region’s first elections, there are proposals to postpone the elections until 2025 or 2028.

The Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, signed in 2014, built a path towards peace, although it did not incorporate all armed groups in the region. The Agreement led to the passage of the Bangsamoro Organic Law in 2018, following the 2017 siege of Marawi in Lanao del Sur Province of Mindanao. The battle, between government forces and an alliance of armed nonstate actors who had seized the city, lasted for five months, killing more than 1,300 and displacing 360,000. Key ISIS-affiliated organizations involved in the siege, including elements of the Abu Sayyaf Group and the Maute Group, were weakened but remain active.

Rates of local electoral violence, resource conflict, and criminal violence are high compared to many countries in the region. President Rodrigo Duterte pledged to continue the War on Drugs campaign until the end of his term in 2022, despite international scrutiny of human rights abuses. Journalists and publications in the Philippines have faced growing pressure from the government. Since President Duterte assumed office, there have been at least 171 incidents of attacks and threats against the media, including the deaths of 15 journalists.

The conflict between the Philippine government and the Communist Party of the Philippines continues at a low level of intensity. Over 120,000 combatants and civilians have died in the struggle since 1969, and multiple peace efforts have been unsuccessful. In December 2018, President Duterte created the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, but two years later he stated that he would not allow any ceasefire with the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the Communist Party, until the end of his term in 2022.

The Covid-19 pandemic spread across the Philippines in 2020 and the government imposed strictly enforced lockdowns as infection rates rose. The resulting economic damage was particularly significant for disadvantaged groups, including those displaced by conflict. The pandemic appears to have exacerbated existing conflict tensions across Mindanao.